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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#41 [url]

Apr 5 06 10:41 AM

BAJO LA LUPA
Alfredo Jalife Rahme

¿Crisis monetaria global en el radar?

EL EFECTO ISLANDIA y el desplome de las bolsas árabes de la OPEP (ver Bajo la Lupa, 29/3/06), escamoteados en los medios especializados (con la excepción puntual de la agencia Bloomberg en referencia al caso de Islandia solamente), cobran el interés del prestigiado rotativo galo Le Monde con un artículo de alerta de su especialista de lujo, Eric Le Boucher ("Los prestamistas de Islandia", 2/4/06).

AMEN QUE SEA significativo que aparezca en el rotativo oficioso de una de las potencias geofinancieras del planeta, es muy persuasiva la demostración cartesiana de Le Boucher, quien se pregunta: "¿Se está gestando una crisis financiera planetaria (sic) en esa piedra (sic) perdida del atlántico norte?"

ESA "PIEDRA" ES la diminuta Islandia, de 103 mil kilómetros cuadrados y casi 300 mil habitantes, con un PIB de 13 mil 400 millones de dólares el año pasado (1.8 por ciento de México), que está poniendo de cabeza toda la operación especulativa del carry trade, un agujero negro de la desregulada globalización financiera feudal que explota los "diferenciales" (spreads) de las tasas de interés en el planeta y que abulta mediante el palancamiento (leverage) de los ominosos hedge funds (fondos de cobertura de riesgo): se pide prestado "en corto" (v.g. en la plaza de Japón, con tasas de interés cercanas a cero) para dar prestado "en largo" en plazas que pagan tasas hasta diez veces más (v.g. Islandia).

ESTE JUEGUITO PARASITARIO de los megaespeculadores, auspiciados por los megabancos anglosajones de inversiones, impulsados por los irresponsables bancos centrales anglosajones, nipones y europeos, llegó a su epílogo debido a que los tres principales centros financieros del planeta (Japón, la Unión Europea y EU) han advertido que elevarán sus tasas de interés.

EU ACABA DE ELEVAR por decimoquinta vez consecutiva sus tasas de interés en la "nueva era" de Ben helicóptero Bernanke, sucesor del malhadado Greenspan en la Reserva Federal, y el Banco Central Europeo las ha incrementado dos veces en fechas recientes, mientras el Banco Central de Japón ha advertido que abandonará sus tasas subsidiadas, lo cual ha puesto de cabeza a las variables del carry trade.

EN SUMA, ASISTIMOS a la elevación generalizada de las tasas de interés a escala planetaria y el único que anda totalmente perdido es el castañedista-salinista Calderón Hinojosa, vulgar demagogo y verdadero ignorantazo en asuntos financieros locales y globales, quien prometió reducir las tasas de interés el 3 de julio en caso de ser impuesto en la Presidencia por la dictadura financiera salinista que lleva un cuarto de siglo en el poder. (¡Pobre México, lo que todavía le espera en su peor escenario!)

LE BOUCHER COMENTA que The Financial Times (31/3/06) le consagró su primera página a la crisis de Islandia cuando su divisa, la corona, podría periclitar todavía más en un 25 por ciento adicional y su PIB retroceder entre 5 y 10 por ciento en los próximos dos años. Según el economista galo, el grave problema se centra en el "engranaje" financiero de las plazas financieras de la globalización: "concluyó el verano del dinero barato y los países endeudados deberán pasar a la caja, es decir, pagar más caros sus rembolsos, apretarse los cinturones y disminuir su ritmo de crecimiento. ¿Es Islandia la primera de una larga (sic) lista?"

DESPUES DE ISLANDIA (curioso, no habla nada de la estrepitosa caída de las bolsas árabes), un segundo centelleo apareció en el radar financiero global: Nueva Zelanda, "más importante, más amenazante". El dólar de Nueva Zelanda, miembro de la anglosfera, se devaluó 10 por ciento y su banco central fue orillado a elevar las tasas.

PROFIERE UNA FRASE trepidante: "las miradas se han volteado a otros países que los mercados (sic), si lo decidieran (sic), podrían acarrear a la tormenta: Hungría, cuya divisa, el florín, se encuentra muy frágil con un retroceso de 5 por ciento; Turquía, lesionada de una crisis previa; Australia y aun Brasil; España y Portugal, estos dos países pese a estar protegidos (sic) por el euro; y por último, y no el menor, EU.

"¿NOS ENCONTRAMOS EN vísperas de una nueva crisis monetaria como el mundo capitalista globalizado conoció hace diez años?", pregunta muy preocupado Le Boucher, quien hace el recuento de México, Tailandia, Brasil y Turquía. Cita al economista estadunidense Nouriel Roubini, quien aduce que el origen de las crisis siempre ha sido el mismo: "una combinación de déficit de cuenta corriente, un auge del crédito y una burbuja de los activos que conducen a un exceso del consumo y precios de bienes raíces". Es lo que acontece en Islandia y en los otros países citados: "la crisis de Islandia puede crear pánico en los mercados financieros globales y expandirse por contagio". Pero que "EU se encuentre en la lista cambia todo", porque se trata del "gran motor de la economía mundial", que "captura los ahorros del mundo en forma inédita. Es el gran desequilibrio de esta época que quiere (sic) que los pobres financien al más rico. Ningún economista imagina que tal sistema sea durable.

"CUANDO EL BANCO de Japón se mueve, los mercados financieros de Islandia tiemblan", titula un extenso análisis de Bloomberg (3/4/06) que pone en la picota a las operaciones de carry trade con el dólar y el yen, que se volvieron muy populares (sic) con los hedge funds en la pasada década: "conforme se despliega el proceso aparecen nuevas fallas tectónicas, que usualmente no son las esperadas. Quizá Islandia sea la primera víctima."

THE FINANCIAL TIMES y The Australian (28/3/06) advierten que el colapso del carry trade señala una crisis de mayor envergadura: las crisis de Nueva Zelanda (insistimos: qué curioso que no citen el desplome de las bolsas árabes de la OPEP) "pueden provocar una caída mayor en los mercados de divisas, que amenacen las divisas de Australia, Sudáfrica,Turquía y Hungría". Es notorio que Nueva Zelanda, Australia y Sudáfrica pertenezcan a la anglosfera tan adicta a la especulación parasitaria. The Financial Times cita a Jens Nordviq, estratega de divisas de Goldman Sachs: "los inversionistas estaban casi ciegos (sic) buscando altos rendimientos en los mercados emergentes, y ahora tendrán que escudriñar los fundamentos económicos". De ser así, uno de los peores países del mundo es EU, con una "economía bananera", como muy bien la ha calificado el solvente economista Paul Krugman.

LOS INVERSIONISTAS JAPONESES han bombeado en los recientes cuatro años 450 mil millones de dólares a los mercados de bonos foráneos que han hecho el deleite de los hedge funds, los cuales toman prestado en dólares y en yenes para operar sus or-gías de compras que impulsó en 186 por ciento en los tres años recientes el índice accionario de los mercados emergentes que maneja Morgan Stanley (MSCI, por sus siglas en inglés). Las divisas que subieron intempestivamente también se desploman de la misma manera conforme se colapsa el carry trade.

PARA AÑADIR SAL a las heridas, Masahiro Hawai, director del departamento de integración económica regional del Banco de Desarrollo Asiático (ADB, por sus siglas en inglés) advirió sobre un "colapso del dólar" (Philippines Inquirer, 29/3/06): "dado el presente desequilibrio de las cuentas corrientes globales (...) nuestra sugerencia a los países asiáticos es que den por sentada el déficit de la cuenta corriente de EU. Si algo sucediera, las economías asiáticas deben estar preparadas. La posibilidad de un colapso del dólar, o su declive abrupto puede ser pequeño en este punto, pero generaría turbulencias significativas a lo que las economías asiáticas deben estar preparadas". El ADB ha propuesto "coordinar las fluctuaciones de sus divisas para permitir que se aprecien en forma colectiva frente al desfalleciente dólar".

UN PERIODICO DE Hong Kong, Wen Wei Po (4/4/06), expuso que Cheng Siwei, uno de los diez vicepresidentes del parlamento chino, dedicado a asuntos económicos, se había pronunciado por soltar en forma gradual las tenencias de deuda estadunidense y cesar de comprar bonos denominados en dólares.

TAMBIEN SUGIRIO "AMPLIAR la banda de flotación del yuan" (léase: revaluar) en el "momento apropiado" y, en un plazo más largo, hacerlo "totalmente convertible", sin especificar un cronograma.

EN ESTAS CONDICIONES paradigmáticas no hay que asombrarse de que el oro y la plata coticen a su máximo nivel desde hace un cuarto de siglo, como habíamos previsto en Bajo la Lupa.

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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#42 [url]

Apr 5 06 4:13 PM

Rossana Fuentes-Berain
05 de abril de 2006

La fractura republicana

"No me subestimen" declaró George W. Bush antes de su último encuentro con Vicente Fox, refiriéndose a que puede ganar la batalla para que su propuesta migratoria avance en el terreno de las elecciones legislativas de EU. Esa declaración representa lo más importante dentro del reciente encuentro de Cancún, que se limitó a una protocolaria despedida al Presidente de México, en este caso claramente "sobrestimado", pues en septiembre del 2001, en otra cumbre, en la Casa Blanca, muchos le creímos que verdaderamente la diplomacia mexicana podría ser un factor en la negociación de la política migratoria estadounidense. No lo fue y hoy simplemente seremos espectadores de una lucha interna entre los legisladores de Capitol Hill.

No hay acuerdo migratorio porque no hay convenio bilateral, porque no hubo discusión, ni habrá decisión entre las dos partes; lo que tendremos que esperar es una reforma unilateral estadounidense para el fenómeno migratorio que nos afecta a ambos. En ese sentido en los próximos meses a los mexicanos nos tocará la bizarra posición de esperar que en verdad la fuerza del presidente Bush no sea menor y que su fracción política dentro del Partido Republicano piense que es de su interés no criminalizar la inmigración. De verdad se necesitará decisión de la Casa Blanca para encauzar la discusión que se dará en los próximos días al interior del Congreso de EU para conciliar lo que salió del Comité Judicial del Senado: una iniciativa balanceada, con lo que está en la Cámara de Diputados: una iniciativa extrema.

El lunes 27 de marzo en una votación de 12 a favor y seis en contra, resultado de que la fracción republicana se dividió, el Comité Judicial del Senado ofreció empleos temporales y la posibilidad de legalizar la estancia de los cerca de 11 millones de indocumentados en EU sin tener que salir de su territorio. Balanceó ese acercamiento favorable a los inmigrantes con medidas que duplicarán los efectivos de la Patrulla Fronteriza y la dotarán de tecnología para hacer un muro virtual. La Cámara de Representantes en cambio pidió declarar criminales a los inmigrantes y quienes los ayuden, incluidas las iglesias, estableció el presupuesto para erigir un muro de casi mil kilómetros en la frontera, y no habló en absoluto de permisos de trabajo.

Entre estas posturas oscila lo que la clase política de EU discutirá en las próximas semanas respecto de la inmigración, que se ha convertido, camino a las elecciones de noviembre, en el asunto clave para definir posturas que pueden acercar o alejar a los electores de sufragar en la boleta en favor o en contra de un candidato. El debate no va a ser cortés. Ya lo advirtió el propio Bush y su representante aquí, el embajador Antonio Garza, quien previó que puede tornarse "acalorado" y en ocasiones "contencioso". En México vamos a escuchar ese debate, cuyo resultado tendrá un gran impacto en nuestro país, sin poder hacer prácticamente nada.

Los tiempos políticos internos no nos favorecen. Fox es historia y los que importan en este momento, los candidatos a la Presidencia, están peleando por su propia sobrevivencia y poco o nada pueden hacer por proyectar sus propios puntos de vista en Estados Unidos respecto de la inmigración ante la prohibición del IFE de hacer campaña fuera de México. Pero si el Ejecutivo está maniatado, el Legislativo no. Urge que en la Comisión de Relaciones Exteriores del Senado mexicano, representantes de PAN, PRI y PRD se hagan presentes con sus contrapartes estadounidenses involucrados en la discusión de la reforma migratoria, pero singularmente con los republicanos que están dudando entre la dureza y el balance.

El Partido Republicano se ha fracturado entre los xenófobos, los que rechazan totalmente la inmigración y quisieran sellar la frontera, y los empresarios, los que la ven como un potencial de mano de obra. Ambos están conscientes de que es un tema de seguridad para Estados Unidos ordenar su frontera, pero no ambos piensan que puede hacerse de la misma forma. Desde cualquier trinchera en México debe ayudarse a los segundos. No es por subestimar a Bush, es por desactivar la bomba que implicaría criminalizar a los indocumentados, que se necesita hacerlo y hacerlo ya.

rfuentes@itam.mx

Periodista investigadora, ITAM

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AStiller0

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#43 [url]

Apr 9 06 8:01 PM

¿Probando las defensas iraníes?

Teherán
Irán derriba un avión sin piloto en la frontera iraquí


[Abril 9 . 12:57 m ] Irán ha derribado un avión sin piloto en el suroeste del país, en la frontera con Iraq, en momentos en que la prensa estadounidense asegura que Estados Unidos estudia la posibilidad de llevar a cabo un ataque militar contra las instalaciones nucleares iraníes, informa este domingo un diario iraní.

"El avión despegó de territorio iraquí y filmaba la región fronteriza", señaló el diario Jomhuri Eslami.

Según este periódico, "los expertos han logrado obtener informaciones sobre el sistema del avión".

La prensa estadounidense afirmó en los últimos días que el gobierno del presidente George W. Bush estudia la posibilidad de realizar ataques selectivos militares contra instalaciones nucleares iraníes.

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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#44 [url]

Apr 9 06 11:09 PM

Probablemente un avión del tipo "Preadator", ese con el que a veces atacan a los mojados en la frontera de Arizona...

Muy bien por las defensas Iranies... parece que los Rusos les han ayudado... ojalá los proveean de sistemas antiaereos S-300 y Tunguska. .

Por otro lado, la producción automóvilistica y acerera de Iran, no cesa de incrementarse a pasos acelerados...

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Economist Intelligence Unit: Country ViewsWire, Fe

Iran industry: Auto exports, production soar

Fri Mar 31, 2006 12:52

Economist Intelligence Unit: Country ViewsWire, Feb 1, 2006 pNA

Iran industry: Auto exports, production soar.

Full Text: COPYRIGHT 2006 Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information.
COUNTRY BRIEFING

The Iranian Customs Administration said in mid-January that the country's car manufacturing industry had exported vehicles worth a total of US$94.5m during the nine-month period beginning March 21st 2005. According to a report from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), customs officials added that the total was some 67% higher than that recorded for the same nine-month period starting in March 2004. Spare parts worth some US$44.7m were also exported over the same period. Syria was the largest market for Iranian vehicles, taking 62% of exported cars by value. Other major markets included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt and the Ukraine. Major markets for spare parts included the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Iran and Syria.

The bulk of these cars are manufactured for local use-import controls mean that local companies dominate the Iranian vehicle market, and for 2005, the total number of imported vehicles amounted to just 10,000. In recent years, however, Iranian manufacturers have started to look beyond their own borders at possible export markets. The tie-ups that local manufacturers have with international car companies will probably help make the products more attractive to export markets. However, growth has still been slower than the government would have wanted-in 2004, government officials were suggesting that automotive exports would reach US$350m in 2005.

SOURCE: Business Middle East

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

MSC’s production capacity hits 4.2m tons per year

Tehran Times Economic Desk
TEHRAN – Production capacity of Mobarakeh Steel Complex (MSC) at Isfahan has reached 4.2 million tons per annum, development plans deputy director of the complex noted here Saturday.

Mohammad Rajaii also stated that pre-commissioning stage of cold-rolled steel lines and pilot production plus installation of a reduction unit were completed as of March 20, 2006. “The reduction unit is expected to come on stream by mid-June 2006,” he added.

At the moment, the pilot production contributes 1,000 to 1,200 tons per day to the annual cold-rolled steel capacity, hitting the total of 1.5 million tons.

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Aldoman

Posts: 410 Member Since:08/06/05

#45 [url]

Apr 10 06 1:01 AM

QUOTE (The Beam @ April 05, 2006 05:50 am)
¿Ya les llego de perdis el Civilization III a Nuevo León?

(juar juar)

elcadillo/jeje.gif

Inche gente envidiosa que no puede vivir en Japón, pero no hay pedo, ahí tienes el gabacho, de seguro puedes ser jardinero de alguien por ahí...

"Hay que juzgar los acontecimientos de acuerdo a nuestra realidad fáctica y no con base en quimeras". Magistrada Alfosina Navarro.

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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#46 [url]

Apr 11 06 12:07 AM

Los Estados Unidos bajan el tono... la agresividad militar aparentemente se reduce...

(Tal vez ya se dieron cuenta de que los Iranies son DUROS de roer )

Es decir... se apuñalaron elcadillo/thumbsupsmilie.gif


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Bush Dismisses Reports Iran Attack Planned

By DEB RIECHMANN,

Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 1 minute ago

WASHINGTON - President Bush dismissed as "wild speculation" reports that the administration was planning for a military strike against Iran.

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Bush did not rule out the use of force, but he said he would continue to use diplomatic pressure to prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon or the know-how and technology to make one.

"I know here in Washington prevention means force," Bush said at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. "It doesn't mean force, necessarily. In this case, it means diplomacy."

Several weekend news reports said the administration was studying options for military strikes. The New Yorker magazine raised the possibility of using nuclear bombs against Iran's underground nuclear sites.

"I read the articles in the newspapers this weekend," Bush said. "It was just wild speculation."

Taking questions from the audience, Bush also said he declassified part of a prewar intelligence report on Iraq in 2003 to show Americans the basis for his statements about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein.

"I wanted people to see the truth," he told a questioner who said there was evidence of a concerted effort by the White House to punish war critic Joseph Wilson. Bush said he could not comment on the CIA leak case because it is under investigation.

Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., sent a letter to Bush on Monday asking him for details about how the document was declassified. "There are many questions that the president must answer so that the American people can understand that this declassification was done for national security purposes, not for immediate political gain."

In Tehran, officials said the media reports about a possible U.S. strike against Iran amounted to psychological warfare from the West.

Iran's hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Iranians not to be intimidated by other nations' attempts to stifle the country's nuclear ambitions.

"Unfortunately, today some bullying powers are unable to give up their bullying nature," Ahmadinejad said. "The future will prove that our path was a right way."

The U.N. Security Council has demanded that Iran suspend all enrichment of uranium — a key process that can produce either fuel for a reactor or the material for a nuclear warhead. The security council gave Tehran until April 28 to comply before the International Atomic Energy Agency reports back to the council on its inspection progress.

Iran has rejected the demand, saying the small-scale enrichment it began in February was strictly for research and was within its rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Bush and other administration officials have said repeatedly that the military option is on the table, and White House officials acknowledge normal military planning is under way.

Defense experts say a military strike on Iran would be risky and complicated, and could aggravate U.S. problems in the Muslim world.

To pressure Iran, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana on Monday recommended that the 25-nation bloc consider sanctions against Iran, including a visa ban on some officials, because of Iran's rejection of U.N. demands that it end uranium enrichment.

Bush has said Iran may pose the greatest challenge to the United States of any other country in the world. And while he has stressed that diplomacy is always preferable, he has defended his administration's strike-first policy against terrorists and other enemies.

"The threat from Iran is, of course, their stated objective to destroy our strong ally Israel," Bush said last month in Cleveland. "That's a threat, a serious threat. It's a threat to world peace; it's a threat, in essence, to a strong alliance. I made it clear, I'll make it clear again, that we will use military might to protect our ally."

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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#47 [url]

Apr 11 06 12:46 AM

A petición de algunos destacados miembros del foro, que me mandaron un mensajito diciendo que este texto les causó un gran placer, aquí se repite.



QUOTE (Sirius @ April 03, 2006 11:23 pm)
Este tema te DUELE, verdad, pinche Shah...

Te duele que el falo del gringo se doble... tu lo necesitas "firme", "turgente"... 

Te duele que un país X se defienda con patriotismo y nacionalismo... que no ruede de muertito cuando el gringo diga:

- "Te voy a bombardear, cabrón"

El país X entonces tiene que acobardarse, decir que ya va a privatizar el Petroleo, que el Establisment gringo puede venir a hacer o deshacer en el sistema productivo y financiero...

Pero no... resulta que el país X, dice

- "Entrale wey, entrale... vamos a los putazos".


Eso te duele... ¿Verdad, pinche Shah? Te duele la virilidad de una nación Asiática milenaria... te duele el mal ejemplo del pais X, que no tiene una Oligarquía anti-nacional y vendida como la tiene Mexico ahora... te revienta.

PUES TE CHINGASTE, PEDAZO DE MIERDA.

TE CHINGASTE.

JA, JA. 



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elshah

Posts: 1,343 Member Since:12/09/05

#48 [url]

Apr 11 06 10:56 PM

Cirio Peraloca dijo:

QUOTE
A petición de algunos destacados miembros del foro, que me mandaron un mensajito diciendo que este texto les causó un gran placer, aquí se repite.



QUOTE (Sirius @ April 03, 2006 11:23 pm)
Este tema te DUELE, verdad, pinche Shah...

Te duele que el falo del gringo se doble... tu lo necesitas "firme", "turgente"... 

Te duele que un país X se defienda con patriotismo y nacionalismo... que no ruede de muertito cuando el gringo diga:

- "Te voy a bombardear, cabrón"

El país X entonces tiene que acobardarse, decir que ya va a privatizar el Petroleo, que el Establisment gringo puede venir a hacer o deshacer en el sistema productivo y financiero...

Pero no... resulta que el país X, dice

- "Entrale wey, entrale... vamos a los putazos".


Eso te duele... ¿Verdad, pinche Shah? Te duele la virilidad de una nación Asiática milenaria... te duele el mal ejemplo del pais X, que no tiene una Oligarquía anti-nacional y vendida como la tiene Mexico ahora... te revienta.

PUES TE CHINGASTE, PEDAZO DE MIERDA.

TE CHINGASTE.

JA, JA. 


Cirio, en caso de que a estas alturas del partido no te hayas dado cuenta que para mi eres una simple diversion, sobre todo porque me fascina tu sistema de creencias (epistemologia, diria el Astillero), te recomiendo que no te tomes muy a pecho mis criticas. Es equivalente a lo que los gringos llaman un "roasting" —una "rostizada", o para ponerlo en terminos mas mejicanos, "una barbacoa".

Me dices que eres egresado de una prestigiosa universidad mejicana; es mas, con premios de excelencia. Por tu manera de pensar, o una de dos —o el sistema pedagogico de tu universidad es bastante escualido o de plano te estafaron. No critico tu apasionante nacionalismo ni tus convicciones politicas. Lo que se me hace risible es tu enredado e hirsuto pensamiento. Deveras es comico, sobre todo cuando tratas de hablar en serio.

Cuando te empecianas en postear articulos sin ton ni son, entonces si es preocupante. Como ya te habia dicho en otro tema, se asemeja a un tipo enajenado que necesita una intervencion siquiatrica. Varios de tus contlapaches ya te lo han hecho ver.

Sin embargo me he encariñado contigo. Como alguien se encariña con un entenado a quien el destino le dio una mano pachuca pero no es su culpa, y su sentido humanitario lo obliga a amparar. Sigue posteando y alli te estaremos pastoreando, dandote temas para que te de vuelta la piedra. ¡Que Dios te bendiga!

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AStiller0

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Posts: 2,710 Member Since:02/24/04

#50 [url]

Apr 11 06 11:32 PM

Y mientras tanto Irán se sigue negando a "rodar de muertito":

Irán logró producir uranio enriquecido

Estados Unidos advirtió que el programa nuclear de Teherán pueda servir para construir bombas atómicas. El presidente iraní hizo el anuncio ante la plana mayor del gobierno. Centrífugas en cascada

El uranio enriquecido a una concentración del 3,5% se completó hace tres días, dijo Ahmadinejad. Este nivel, utilizado para combustible de reactores nucleares, está muy por debajo del que se emplea para las armas atómicas, que es del 90%. La producción del combustible se consiguió luego de que científicos iraníes inyectaron gas en una cascada de 164 centrífugas. La ONU había advertido a Teherán que debía interrumpir inmediatamente el proceso de enriquecimiento de uranio. Sin embargo, Irán insiste en que su programa nuclear persigue fines civiles y que el combustible servirá para hacer funcionar sus plantas de energía. Hoy llega una misión de la AIEA a Teherán. (Especial) Teherán/Washington.- Irán enriqueció exitosamente uranio por primera vez en la planta de Natanz, en el centro del país, anunció ayer el presidente iraní Mahmud Ahmadinejad, hecho que calificó como un logro histórico. “Irán continuará desarrollando la tecnología para el enriquecimiento hasta que las plantas atómicas del país puedan ser abastecidas con combustible”, señaló.
Ahmadinejad aseguró que Irán no aspira a bombas atómicas y que la cooperación con la Agencia Internacional de Energía Atómica (AIEA) tendrá continuidad en el tiempo.
En su discurso de 20 minutos de duración ante la plana mayor del gobierno, el mandatario explicó que la producción del combustible nuclear sitúa a la nación iraní entre los países avanzados. Según el responsable del Organismo de Energía Nuclear de Irán (OENI), Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, se logró producir 110 toneladas de gas de uranio para su posterior enriquecimiento.

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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#51 [url]

Apr 13 06 12:00 AM

THE ROVING EYE

The war on Iran
By Pepe Escobar

QUOTE
"All options, including the military one, are on the table."
- US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld


QUOTE
"I announce, officially, that dear Iran has joined the nuclear countries of the world."
- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, saying on Tuesday that Iran had successfully enriched uranium for the first time, a landmark step toward its quest to develop nuclear fuel.


The ominous signs are "on the table" for all to see. The Pentagon has its Long War, the rebranded "war on terror" that Vice President Dick Cheney swears will last for decades, a replay of the war between Eastasia and Oceania in George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four.

President George W Bush issued a "wild speculation" non-denial
denial that the US was planning strategic nuclear strikes against
Iran, but Iran considerably upped the ante on Tuesday with President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's announcement that Iran had enriched uranium for the first time. In a nationally televised speech, Ahmadinejad urged the West to stop pressuring Tehran, saying that Iran was seeking to develop nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes.

Iranian nuclear officials say the country has produced 100 tonnes of uranium gas, an essential ingredient for enrichment. The United Nations Security Council has demanded that Iran stop all uranium-enrichment activity by April 28. Iran has rejected the demand.

From the point of view of the Pentagon's Long War, a strategic nuclear attack on Iran can be spun to oblivion as the crucial next stage of the war on "radical Islam". From the view of a factionalized European Union, this is (very) bad business; the Europeans prefer to concentrate on the factionalized nature of the Iranian government itself and push for a nuclear deal.

Iranian government officials claim that the Germans and the Italians - big trade partners with extensive economic interests in the country - are pushing for a deal more than the French and much more than the British. As much as the EU cannot possibly agree on a unified foreign policy, Europeans in fact reject both sanctions and/or a possible US military strike.

Hitler meets Iraqification

The demonization of Ahmadinejad in some quarters in the US as the "new Adolf Hitler" is beside the point. As Asia Times Online has shown (The ultimate martyr, April 12), all crucial decisions in Iran remain with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ahmadinejad has been downgraded by the leader to play a "domestic" president's role.

His vocal, nationalist defense of Iran's civilian nuclear program follows the leader's script, and is met with approval because virtually all Iranians regard the issue as a matter of national right and pride.

(Estos weyes si que funcionan diferente a los Mexicanos... mientras más damos las nalgas, más "orgullosos" nos sentimos)

According to a late-January poll by the Iranian Students Polling Agency, 85.4% of Iranians are in favor of continuing with the nuclear program. More than 80% feel the country needs nuclear energy. And about 70% regard the European negotiation side as "illogical".

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, issued a fatwa in the 1980s declaring that production, possession and use of nuclear weapons was against Islam. Russia, China and India still take him at his word.

For the Iranian government, the nuclear program is a powerful symbol of independence with regard to what is perceived as Anglo-Saxon colonialism. The view is shared by Iranians of all social classes and education backgrounds. Moreover, Iran is pushing for a leading role in the Non-Aligned Movement, stating that every country has the right to a peaceful nuclear program. What Iran officially wants is a nuclear-free zone in West Asia, and that includes Israel, the sixth nuclear power in the world with more than 200 nuclear warheads.

But the issue itself may be beside the point. What's really at stake is that while the occupation of Iraq might be downgraded, the "invisible" US military bases will consolidate the US presence in Iraq and the Persian Gulf region. Ahmadinejad in this scenario is the perfect Hitler; US troops - and bases - must remain on the ground to prevent Iran from going nuclear and to prevent Iran's influence in Iraq's "Shi'iteistan".

Meanwhile, Washington's avowed initiative of financing groups to provoke "regime change" from within is widely viewed in Tehran as a joke. What Iranians - both in government and in the bazaars and tea shops - take very seriously is the US lending a hand to Israel squeezing Palestine even more - a development also spun in Washington as part of the war on "radical Islam". The Quadrennial Defense Review - the Pentagon's strategic document calling for the Long War against terror - can be easily interpreted as a call for a war on Islam.


The first steps towards war

A war on Iran could involve many military scenarios.

a.) Iranian officials are aware that the US may go for an initial "shock and awe".

b.) But they play down the possibility of a street revolution toppling the nationalist theocracy, as Washington hopes; the regime controls everything, and in the event of a foreign attack, virtually the whole population would rally behind the government.

c.) They also exclude attacking Israel, because they know Israel may respond with a nuclear strike.

d.) But they do not rule out the possibility of the US dropping nuclear bombs on Iran.

Iran's current demonology instrumentalizes the UN Security Council, in the name of "peace" and nuclear non-proliferation. But Iranian officials keep complaining that the country's official nuclear proposal was never examined in full by the EU. It included a provision that Iran would continue to negotiate with the EU-3 (Germany, France and Britain) on uranium enrichment for two more years, and would resume enrichment only if negotiations failed. The next step in the Security Council may be the imposition of "intelligent sanctions" - an oxymoron. In practice, that would mean a partial trade embargo on Iran, excluding food and of course oil and gas. Oil and gas are once again the heart of the matter. A recent energy conference in Tehran (In the heart of Pipelineistan, March 17) made it clear that Iran is a crucial node of a proposed Asian energy-security grid, which includes China, Russia and India.

This grid would bypass Western - especially US - control of energy supplies and fuel in a real 21st-century industrial revolution all across Asia. It's no wonder that many analysts view the war on Iran in essence as a war of the United States against Asia.

The ultimate prize

As was the case with Iraq, Iran is being sold as a threat to world peace (it may be pursuing nuclear weapons). Bush - at least vocally - hopes diplomacy will prevail. But the decision to attack may have been made already, just as it was taken regarding Iraq way before March 2003.

Iraq had signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but was accused of possessing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). UN weapons inspectors were expelled on the eve of the 2003 war. Iran has also signed the NPT, but is being accused of pursuing a nuclear-weapons program. UN weapons inspectors still work in the country on and off - but for how long?

In 1995, Iraq told UN inspectors, via Saddam Hussein's brother-in-law Hussein Kamel, about a secret nuclear-weapons program, which had just been scrapped. This did not prevent the regime from being accused of concealing WMD just before the March 2003 invasion. In 2002, Iran told the UN that it had a secret nuclear program - not a weapons program. This did not prevent Iran from being accused four years later by the EU-3 of "concealment and deception".

In November 2002, the US threatened to strike Iraq unless it cooperated with UN inspectors. The US invaded Iraq anyway, without Security Council backing. In January, the EU-3 called for Iran to be referred to the Security Council. Sanctions may be applied. If no diplomatic solution is found, the Pentagon may find the opening it seeks for the next stage of its Long War.

Iran is not to be easily intimidated. Few in Tehran take the threat of oil sanctions seriously. Iranians know that even if the US decided to bomb the country's nuclear sites, they are maintained by Russian advisers and technicians; that would mean in effect a declaration of war against Russia.

Russia recently closed a US$700 million deal selling 30 Tor M-1 surface-to-air missiles to Iran - very effective against aircraft, cruise missiles and guided bombs. The missiles will be deployed at the nuclear-research center at Isfahan and the Bushehr reactor, which is being built by Russia
.


Iranians know Shi'ites in the south and in Baghdad would turn extreme heat on the occupation forces in Iraq. Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, on an official visit to Iran, according to his spokesman, said that "if any Islamic state, especially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is attacked, the Mehdi Army would fight inside and outside Iraq".

Iranians also know they can bypass any trade sanctions by trading even more with China. Anyway, Mohammed-Nabi Rudaki, deputy chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, which sits at the majlis (parliament), has already threatened that "if Europe does not act wisely with the Iranian nuclear portfolio and it is referred to the UN Security Council and economic or air travel restrictions are imposed unjustly, we have the power to halt oil supply to the last drop from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz".

Up to 30% of the world's oil production passes through the strait. Were Iran to block it, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait would not be able to export their oil. The Pentagon may eventually get its Long War - but not exactly on its terms.

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Aldoman

Posts: 410 Member Since:08/06/05

#52 [url]

Apr 13 06 1:42 AM

Woman loses "Lotto Rapist" compensation appeal
LONDON (Reuters) - The elderly victim of a convicted rapist lost a legal bid Wednesday to make the attacker pay compensation after he won millions on Britain's national lottery while in prison.

But her legal representatives said they would appeal to the House of Lords -- the country's highest court.

Iorworth Hoare, dubbed the "Lotto rapist" by the media, had no money when he went to jail for life in 1989.

He spent 16 years in jail and while on weekend leave from prison in 2004 prior to his release he bought a lottery ticket which netted him 7 million pounds ($12.29 million).

His 77-year-old victim had argued Hoare should be made to pay for his "violent and disgusting sexual assault" that left her mentally scarred.

But the appeal was rejected.

At a previous High Court case, a judge ruled Hoare did not have to pay compensation because the woman had made her appeal outside the normal six-year time limit to sue for damages. The judges Wednesday said they were bound to that decision.

Mrs A -- who cannot be named for legal reasons -- says she still suffers from the mental torture she endured from serial rapist Hoare's brutal assault on her.

Her lawyer Alan Newman said she was 59 when Hoare attacked her as she walked in a Leeds park in broad daylight in February 1988.

He said Hoare was guilty of a series of sexual assaults on women, including at least two rapes, and was jailed for life at Leeds Crown Court in 1989 for the attempted rape of Mrs A.

She did not sue him for damages at the time because he had no money and any judgment would have been worthless. She received 5,000 pounds from the Criminal Injuries Compensation Board.

"Hay que juzgar los acontecimientos de acuerdo a nuestra realidad fáctica y no con base en quimeras". Magistrada Alfosina Navarro.

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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#53 [url]

Apr 14 06 8:08 PM

A ver... ¿Que dicen los Rusos?

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Storm gathering in Iran

22:54 | 12/ 04/ 2006

MOSCOW. (Lt.-Gen. Gennady Yevstafiyev (Ret.), Foreign Intelligence Service, for RIA Novosti)

The Iranian authorities and elite are busy transferring their bank accounts from Europe to Asia, or to Switzerland, whose territory is usually outside sanctions. These are multi-billion sums. Many analysts see this as Tehran's precaution ahead of a potential armed clash with the U.S. and its allies, which may take place if the attempt to settle the situation around Iran's nuclear program falls through.

Apparently, the Iranians have learnt their own lessons well and remember the sad experience of neighboring Iraq, which was attacked for its alleged attempt to hide the weapons of mass destruction from the world community.

For all the differences between the two regimes and their political and economic potentialities the Washington-drafted plan of action against Iran is strangely similar to the U.S. scenario for Iraq. But there are some indications that the U.S. strategists have lost some of their confidence since the cruel lesson in Iraq. This fact creates an additional chance for a diplomatic settlement of the problem.

According to U.S. political tradition, George W. Bush is an outgoing president, a lame duck. It would seem nothing should prevent him from being totally reckless in foreign policy, except for a natural desire to go down in history with a more positive image. The problem is that his entourage is not motivated to make a positive contribution to history. To the contrary, it is obsessed with a messianic idea to prove single-handed the prevailing military force of the U.S. super power, and its readiness to bear the heavy cross of the only propagator of American democracy, the only true democracy in the world.

It is this entourage that sets the pace of the attempts to step up the preparations for a strike against the Iranian regime. Clearly, the latter is no bargain either to professional diplomats or international officials who are trying to find a compromise on the Iranian nuclear problem.

U.S. long-term goals in Iran are obvious: to engineer the downfall of the current regime, establish control over Iran's oil and gas, and use its territory as the shortest route for the U.S.-controlled transportation of hydrocarbons from the regions of Central Asia and the Caspian Sea bypassing Russia and China. This is not to mention Iran's intransient military and strategic significance.

It is not yet clear what long-term goals are in the minds of the Iranian leaders, whose positions are far from flexible. Of course, for starters, they would like to have nuclear weapons like their second-rate neighbor Pakistan. Incidentally, it was the U.S., a vigorous fighter for the non-proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction, that allowed Pakistan to get the bomb without a problem. Now it is making declarations of love to its enemy India.

The ayatollahs believe that nuclear weapons would make Iran invulnerable to foreign pressure, and turn it into the number one nation of the Persian Gulf. Well-known Swedish diplomat Rolf Ekeus thinks that the Iranian nuclear program is not anti-Western, but was a response to Saddam Hussein's nuclear bid. But now that Saddam is no longer in the picture, and that Tehran has declared that its nuclear program is exclusively civilian, why repeat all these loud statements about the need to erase Israel like Carthage from the face of the Earth? Why make them sound as if Tehran already has nuclear weapons? It seems that if Tehran's policy were peaceful and well balanced, it would bring it many more benefits and allies against the background of the aggressive line adopted by the U.S., and would rule out any military initiatives.

In the absence of this line anything may happen; all the more so if the Americans or Israelis decide to provoke some particularly malicious act of terror in the Middle East through their local agents (Israel has more of them than the U.S.), and blame it on the verbose ideologists from Tehran.

The mentality of the current U.S. Administration officials suggests the following tentative scenario. First, they will persuade the world that the talks with Iran are a thing of the past, and that priority should be given to sanctions against it. A Security Council resolution on the imposition of any sanctions will be a key element. Once adopted, the sanctions will be followed by a chain of consistent steps, which, regardless of what the world might think, would result in the use of military force to overthrow the current regime.

But this far from simple task requires a lot of effort. To begin with, it is necessary to consolidate the Western alliance. It seems that although British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has said more than once that military solution is unthinkable, Prime Minister Tony Blair is, as usual, in Mr. Bush's pocket, and already taking part in drafting a plan of joint action as a junior partner. It may be that the Brits have been told to deal with the Shiites in Iraq because without at least some appeasement of this group it will be very difficult to guarantee success in the operation against Iran, which may use the Shiite lever any time for an asymmetrical but very painful response. Incidentally, this is evidence of the fact that the second-stage task - Iran's complete isolation - is far from being fulfilled. Therefore, now the focus of attention is still on exerting heavy psychological pressure on Iran, as well as on those countries, which do not give the U.S. complete carte blanche.

Last January the Director of the U.S. National Intelligence John Negroponte appointed Ms. S. Leslie Ireland as the Mission Manager for Iran. She was involved in intelligence in the Middle East for more than 20 years. It is easy to see what this mission is all about. Obviously, some Gulf nations already have their own Gateway, which became so infamous during the effort of the Security Council Special Commission to disarm Iraq. Moreover, Joseph Sirinsione, a major expert on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, admitted that he was not right when he thought that the Bush Administration was not going to deal a military blow at Iran. Now he is sure that it will strike.

When told that the Iranians have many underground nuclear and military installations, the Pentagon proudly responds that it is already testing 700-ton precision bombs designed to destroy facilities (bunkers and depots) deep underground.

The U.S. has inspired the leak that the Iranian rulers are trying to persuade Turkmenbashi to let them stay in Turkmenistan during hostilities. Even the Pentagon's latest attack on Russian security services for alleged transfer of information about a future U.S. aggression to Iraq, is obviously aimed at creating a political atmosphere where nobody would even think of backing Tehran.

And what about a resolution submitted to the Senate in early 2006 with the demand of a ban (to be imposed by whom?) on Russian and Chinese arms supplies to Iran?

And what to do about Ukraine, which has ostensibly supplied Iran with 250 nuclear charges? What kind of an Orange ally is it?!

In general, the Americans have started playing the bear, like they did in Iraq.

Needless to say, Condoleezza Rice would like Iran to surrender, but this seems to be wishful thinking. Tehran has its own hawks. So the remaining options are to engineer a coup, preferably velvet, or to go for a blitz-intervention, or a completely disarming sudden attack.

It is clear that the Administration will try to minimize its military casualties, and will focus on the use of cruise missiles, and pilotless reconnaissance and assault aircraft. This is exactly why the Iranian hawks defiantly demonstrated their military arsenal not long ago. But they will fight the U.S. with other instruments, and their asymmetrical response may cost Washington dearly. Its allies will pay even more.

The situation is developing in fits and starts with monthly intervals. One more moment of truth is approaching today. The Iranians took a step when their Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced at the disarmament conference on March 30 Tehran's readiness to consider the formation of regional uranium-enrichment consortiums where all interested parties will take an equal part. Apparently, it is necessary to quickly analyze this step. What is it - a proposal of compromise, or an attempt to gain time? Meanwhile, another IAEA inspection is at work in Iran (all in all, IAEA inspectors have already spent 1,700 working inspection days in Iran, but the evidence of its involvement in the military program is not yet there). Let's repeat: the world sees these tricks as clumsy. However, the promotion by the Bush Administration of its ideas at home has produced results - the polls have shown a steady increase in the number of people who are ready to accept the use of any military force against Iran. As of March 15, their number was well over 55%. Continuous advocacy of even the most unjustified demands works wonders, as the Third Reich proved a long time ago.

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Aldoman

Posts: 410 Member Since:08/06/05

#54 [url]

Apr 14 06 10:40 PM

A ver... ¿Qué dicen los Japoneses?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Police return $42,000 thrown out with trash
Thu Apr 13, 9:59 AM ET

TOKYO (Reuters) - A Japanese man wept for joy this week when he recovered 5 million yen ($42,210) in cash his wife had mistakenly thrown out with the household rubbish.

The 35-year-old man had withdrawn the money from a bank account but, fearing it would be stolen, he hid it inside a refuse bag which he placed in a rubbish bin, Japanese media said.

His wife unknowingly threw out the bag, which was found last month at a refuse collection point outside an apartment building in Saitama, north of Tokyo.

Local police returned the money after the man was able to give details of the exact amount and where he had withdrawn it.

Many Japanese keep large quantities of money hidden in their homes and cash is often used for business transactions.

"Hay que juzgar los acontecimientos de acuerdo a nuestra realidad fáctica y no con base en quimeras". Magistrada Alfosina Navarro.

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Sirius

Posts: 1,723 Member Since:03/13/04

#55 [url]

Apr 14 06 11:16 PM

Pinchi aldoman... elcadillo/yonohesido.gif

Ya deja de estar spameando mis threads, wey

Y... porque lees "Reuters" para enterarte de que pex con lo que pasa en Tokyo... ???

Orale!! Muestrenos su "superioridad escolar" y traduzcanos (bien) lo que dice en la primera página del "Asahi Shinbun"

http://www.asahi.com

Ya fuiste ver "Otokotachi no Yamato" ??

Dicen que está perrona.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ya, neto, pinche Aldo... deja de spamear... aporta algo inteligente o le voy a decir a Astillero que te ponga en tu lugar

Pero si quieres discusión inteligente, respecto a Japón u otro tema, pues aquí estamos.



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Aldoman

Posts: 410 Member Since:08/06/05

#58 [url]

Apr 15 06 12:21 AM

QUOTE
Ya deja de estar spameando mis threads, wey

Uy, no te mordiste la lengua?

QUOTE
Y... porque lees "Reuters" para enterarte de que pex con lo que pasa en Tokyo... ???

Yo no vivo en Tokyo, no me gustan las rat races.

QUOTE
Orale!! Muestrenos su "superioridad escolar" y traduzcanos (bien) lo que dice en la primera página del "Asahi Shinbun"


Los que hacen eso cobran entre 200 y 500 dólares, como dirían en México. Tas Pendejo

QUOTE
Ya fuiste ver "Otokotachi no Yamato" ??

Dicen que está perrona.


No, no pago 1,500 yenes para ver una película japonesa... Mejor me espero al DVD.

QUOTE
Ya, neto, pinche Aldo... deja de spamear... aporta algo inteligente o le voy a decir a Astillero que te ponga en tu lugar


Anda y dile, a mi que?

Yo considero que estos reportes son fundamentales a la discusión, como tu consideras que la diarrea literaria que copy pasteas cada 10 minutos (wow, lo intenté y no logro hacerlo. Debes tener mucho tiempo libre) lo es.

Y gracias por poner el nombre en Kana, se leer, no te preocupes.

"Hay que juzgar los acontecimientos de acuerdo a nuestra realidad fáctica y no con base en quimeras". Magistrada Alfosina Navarro.

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The Beam

Posts: 693 Member Since:03/05/06

#59 [url]

Apr 15 06 12:46 AM

QUOTE (Aldoman @ April 14, 2006 11:21 pm)
Uy, no te mordiste la lengua?


Yo no vivo en Tokyo, no me gustan las rat races.



Los que hacen eso cobran entre 200 y 500 dólares, como dirían en México. Tas Pendejo



No, no pago 1,500 yenes para ver una película japonesa... Mejor me espero al DVD.



Anda y dile, a mi que?

Yo considero que estos reportes son fundamentales a la discusión, como tu consideras que la diarrea literaria que copy pasteas cada 10 minutos (wow, lo intenté y no logro hacerlo. Debes tener mucho tiempo libre) lo es.

Y gracias por poner el nombre en Kana, se leer, no te preocupes.

No vives en Tokyo, ni en Kyoto, ni en Japón. Vives en el estado de Nuevo León, ¿para que te haces pendeja?

Fucking owned. elcadillo/jeje.gif

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Aldoman

Posts: 410 Member Since:08/06/05

#60 [url]

Apr 15 06 12:53 AM

Como te va con el puesto de hamburguesas en tijuas? todo bien?



Son las 10:50 en tijuas no? vete a agarrar el pedo o ya no tienes amigos por lo del ojo virolo? pinche sociedad mamona!

"Hay que juzgar los acontecimientos de acuerdo a nuestra realidad fáctica y no con base en quimeras". Magistrada Alfosina Navarro.

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